Tax Revenue Falls in 2026: More Foreign Trade Audits Ahead for Baja California?

According to figures from Mexico's Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) and the Tax Administration Service (SAT), total tax revenue grew only 0.4% in real terms during the first half of 2026 compared to 2025, the result of a real decline of 6.2% in Income Tax (ISR) collection —the first four months of the year had already closed 1.6% below the prior year and 40,157.8 million pesos below the target set in the 2026 Federal Revenue Law (LIF)—. By contrast, Value Added Tax (VAT) grew 10.6%, non-petroleum excise tax (IEPS) 9.1%, fuel IEPS 3.7%, and the general import tax 6.4%, all driven largely by consumption and the flow of goods.

Among the points we consider relevant to highlight:

• Reading the data: ISR is a direct tax tied to profits and formal employment, and it falls because the economy slowed down (manufacturing and construction). VAT, IEPS, and the import tax, by contrast, are consumption and trade-flow taxes that are easier to monitor in real time (customs, digital platforms, CFDI), which is why they sustained overall revenue.

• Lower audit efficiency: The yield from tax audits fell by nearly 49% in the first half of 2026 compared to prior periods, which pressures the authority to compensate by relying more heavily on foreign trade control points.

  
  

• What we anticipate: This growing reliance on foreign trade as a revenue source makes it likely that on-site inspections, desk reviews, and electronic audits of importers, exporters, and IMMEX companies will increase, centered on the materiality of transactions.

• Baja California in the spotlight: The state is home to the largest number of IMMEX-program establishments in the country (17.3% of the national total, according to INEGI), making it likely that foreign trade audits will intensify particularly within its territory.

  
  

This decline in tax revenue will almost inevitably translate into more foreign trade audits in Baja California, given its concentration of manufacturing and export industry.

At TP Legal we recommend that companies in the region act proactively, strengthening their documentary materiality and internal controls, so as to be prepared for the timely attention and handling of these processes, should they arise.